After the Specials · NZ 2026

How close is each party to a list seat?

How far each party's share of the party vote must move, and what it would need from the special votes.

Assumptions

When one party's share of special votes moves, how the other parties share the rest.

Split
Overseas votes
Strength

Blocs

What final party vote does Left + TOP need to gain quota seats from the Right?

Where the quota seats change

Parties

What final party vote does each party need to gain or lose seats?

Left + TOP: gaining seats

Right: losing seats

How seats are shared out

The Sainte-Laguë method, in four steps.

1Who qualifies

At least 5% of the party vote or one electorate. Seven parties qualify; Te Pāti Māori through its electorates.

2Divide by 1, 3, 5, 7…

Each party's votes are divided by 1, 3, 5, 7… to give its quotients. Example, 10 seats:

Divide by1357911
A · 50,00050,00016,66710,0007,1435,5564,545
B · 30,00030,00010,0006,0004,2863,3332,727
C · 20,00020,0006,6674,0002,8572,2221,818

The 10 biggest win: A 5, B 3, C 2.

3The top 120 win seats

All quotients are ranked together; the top 120 each win a seat. In 2026 the last seat in is Labour's 36th and first out is National's 36th, 51 behind.

4Overhang

A party that wins more electorates than its share keeps them, and Parliament grows. National has 42 electorates for a share of 35, Te Pāti Māori 5 for 1: 131 seats, majority 66. So National's quota can fall without it losing a seat.

2026 quotients

Last 5 seats in, and each party's next seat