Which electorates could special votes flip?
A seat-by-seat view of the closest electorates is on its way. Until then, here is why electorates matter for the result.
Why electorates matter
How can an electorate change who governs when party vote decides the seats?
1Party vote sets the share
Each party's share of Parliament comes from its party vote. Winning an electorate usually just fills one of those seats.
2Overhang adds seats
National won 42 electorates for a party-vote share of about 35, and Te Pāti Māori 5 for about 1. They keep the extras, so Parliament has 131 seats and a majority needs 66.
3So a flip can move a seat
If special votes flip a National electorate, the Right loses a seat and Parliament shrinks by one. If Te Pāti Māori picks one up, the Left gains a seat and Parliament grows by one.
Try it now
What happens if National or Te Pāti Māori win more or fewer electorates?
The Assumptions panel on the Forecast page lets you set National's electorates (38 to 44) and Te Pāti Māori's (4 to 7). The expected result and the outcomes chart update straight away.
Open the forecast settings